"I have always said that all options are on the table," Bush said on July 2. "But the first option for the United States is to solve this problem diplomatically."
The United States has accused Tehran of trying to build nuclear weapons. Iran insists it only wants to develop nuclear facilities for peaceful, civilian purposes. President Bush now says progress is being made in diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis.
"I've also made it clear that you can't solve a problem diplomatically unless there are other people at the table with you, and that is why we have been pursuing multilateral diplomacy when it comes to convincing the Iranians that the free world is sincere about insisting that they not have the technologies necessary to develop a nuclear weapon," Bush said. "And we're making progress along those lines."
Tensions have flared in recent days amid reports that Israel might be planning to carry out strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. That has helped send crude-oil prices soaring to record highs on international markets.
But Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, on a July 2 visit to United Nations headquarters in New York, told journalists he thinks neither the United States nor Israel will risk what he called the "craziness" of attacking Iran.
Mottaki said officials in Tehran think such an attack is unlikely because U.S. forces are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mottaki said "constructive statements and approaches," as well as an earlier proposal by Iran, had "paved the way" for creating a more positive diplomatic atmosphere. But he also issued a warning that "if the nature of the offense changes and takes on a military shape and form, then the military will use its own language and speak in its own language."
"Our preference is that the environment remains political and diplomatic so that we can find diplomatic solutions as a priority," Mottaki said.
At the Pentagon, the chairman of the U.S. Joint chiefs of Staff, U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen, said Tehran has reached the wrong conclusion if it thinks the United States is unable to back diplomacy with military force. Still, Mullen admitted that war with Iran would be a logistical challenge for U.S. forces.
"Opening up a third front right now would be extremely stressful on us," Mullen said. "That doesn't mean we don't have capacity or reserve. But that would really be very challenging. And also the consequences of that sometimes are very difficult to predict."
Mullen, who recently returned from a two-day visit to Israel, said he thinks Tehran is "still on a path to get nuclear weapons." But Mullen said he is convinced that the way to resolve the dispute with Iran is to use other tactics to change Tehran's behavior -- including diplomatic, financial, and international pressure.
U.S. military officials are downplaying concerns that Tehran would be able to close the Strait of Hormuz -- a key oil shipping route -- if Iran does become engaged in any military confrontation with Israel or the United States.
8:40 AM
11:57 AM
For months, media reports in the region have claimed that militants from Central Asia are conducting violent operations in Pakistan's volatile tribal areas along the Afghan border.Now, Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has not only confirmed those reports, according to which hundreds of IMU militants are holed up in Pakistan's tribal belt, but also pinned some of the blame for a recent rise in violence there on the Central Asian militants.
Speaking on June 28, Gilani stated that "foreign elements hailing from Central Asian republics are disturbing peace in the tribal areas." Gilani was apparently referring to the mainly Uzbek Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), an Al-Qaeda-inspired group originally founded to topple Central Asian governments and replace them with an Islamic caliphate.
He gave no other details. And what Pakistan intends to do about the presence of the militants remains unclear -- although senior officials including Major-General Ahtar Abbas acknowledge that military action against them is not imminent.
"There are no operations imminent because, as you know, there are already peace talks between the government and tribes there," Abbas said.
The IMU, which made headlines in January after reports of bloody clashes in South Waziristan with local tribesmen, first emerged as a militant group bent on overthrowing autocratic Uzbek President Islam Karimov. Many of its members were hosted by Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan but ended up in Pakistan following the U.S.-led topping of the Taliban in late 2001.
The Pakistani government, in a bid to diffuse rising violence in the area, has been carrying out negotiations with pro-Taliban militants and local tribal leaders. But the IMU militants appear not to be part of this process.
Indeed, Pakistani officials like Abbas say they want to the IMU members to leave the country but would prefer that the problem be solved by local leaders.
"Allow a homegrown solution to emerge is what government is trying to do. This solution would comprise of first to ask [the tribes] to control the area and remove all the foreigners," Abbas said. "The government wants the tribes to throw out the foreigners in the area and is ready to give them some time in this regard."
Gilani reiterated the government's desire to negotiate peace deals with those who put down their weapons. But he added that Pakistan, which this week launched an attack on pro-Taliban militia near the city of Peshawar, would continue to use force against those who resort to violence and sow insecurity.
Experts believe that the group, with some 500 members, now poses more of a threat to Pakistan than to the Uzbek regime.
Pakistani journalist and the author Ahmed Rashid told RFE/RL that the group has localized its activities in Paksitan's tribal belt.
"We've seen more and more of these people coming in. We have seen more suicide bombers in Afghanistan who supposed to be Uzbek from Uzbekistan," Rashid said. "Clearly, there's something going on here."
History Of Violence
Pakistan's "Daily Times" has described IMU leader Tohir Yuldash as staunch follower of Al-Qaeda's second-in-command, Aiman al-Zawahiri. Yuldash reportedly believes that jihad should first target not the United States but "hypocritical Muslims" who somehow support Washington.
Uzbek militants have been blamed in some reports for violence against and disregard for local Pashtun culture in Waziristan, including killings and assassination attempts against some tribal leaders considered loyal to Pakistan's central government.
Last year, Pakistani forces claimed to have killed at least 150 Uzbek militants.
Early this year, the IMU said it had joined up with the forces of local militant leader Baitullah Mehsud to battle Pakistani forces and local tribal leaders. In an audio clip sent to RFERL's Uzbek Service in January, a self-described IMU spokesman, Abdulfattoh Ahmadi, purported to describe those clashes.
"For a week, Pakistani forces and tribal Muslims have engaged in heavy fighting in Spinkay, Makin, and Razmak regions," Ahmadi said. "Heavy weapons constantly are targeting civilians and women with babies can be seen running away in severe cold. However, government forces also suffer losses. Some government positions are seized and some burned down."
What is unclear is the real strength of the IMU, which is on the U.S. State Department's list of designated foreign terrorist organizations.
There have been several past reports that Yuldash 40, had been killed. But each time they were apparently disproved with the release of fresh audio addresses from the Uzbek militant leader.
Karimov, speaking after the Taliban's ouster from power in 2001, said "the IMU posses no threat to Uzbekistan." But to help prevent militants from invading the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, governments there have formed a rapid reaction forces under the pro-Russian Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Meanwhile, from South Waziristan, the IMU continues to search for ways to replenish its depleted and scattered ranks by promoting a new strategy - one that seeks to take aim at the government of Pakistan and its supporters.
10:42 AM
Correspondent Sa’ad Kamil in Baghdad:
The citizens of Baghdad have been able to breathe more easily during this past period. There has been a tangible improvement in the security situation and there are positive changes on the security front in most areas, even those that used to be described as hot spots. Coffee shops are open late into the night, and the shopping streets have revived with new movement.
But some recent incidents have had a negative effect on people, and we have seen two days of empty streets and very little shopping activity. Even the shops that were open were preventing vehicles from stopping near them, and those entering and leaving the larger shops and malls were being searched. There is a lack of trust, even with the visible military presence and the security measures, but there seems to be a weakness in the security personnel who are simply using hand signals while giving passing vehicles a cursory glance. This does not prevent those who want to hurt people from choosing their own time and place, like the incident in Al-Hurriyah. The general view of the streets of Baghdad shows one or more security vehicles stationed about 100-200 meters apart, but this does not allay fears among the people.
Correspondent Mohammad al-Katib in Mosul, Nineveh Governorate:
Security operations are continuing, and military activity is still ongoing. There have been some security breaches, such as car bombs and explosive devices, and some assassinations including a local Nineveh TV broadcaster. In spite of all that, life is going on normally; people are shopping on the streets where there is normal traffic movement. Again, this is in spite of the ongoing presence of checkpoints and concrete barricades on the streets.
There is a degree of hope and optimism among the people here that the security operation will succeed and achieve its goals. There is also optimism that life in the city will return to normal, and that the people will resume their normal lives and activities. [Residents'] comments on the security breaches indicate that such breaches are likely to occur anywhere in Iraq, regardless of any security operation.
[Regarding areas outside the full control of Iraqi security:] There is no particular area to single out, because such tensions can be present anywhere, but the Right Bank and some parts of the Left Bank [of the Tigris River] are affected.
Diyala Governor Ibrahim Bajellan in Ba'quba:
Two weeks ago, during a meeting of the Diyala Council, we asked the federal government to carry out a law-enforcement operation that would build on the previous operations. The operations in Baghdad, Mosul, and other parts of Iraq have resulted in some terrorists fleeing to Diyala Governorate, and particularly to the area south of Baladrooz, Hamreen, Sa’adiya, and Jalawla’a, and also to the Imam Weys area. The gangs in these areas are mounting roadblocks and killing innocent people; they kill according to the person’s identity.
[Violence has decreased] particularly in Ba’aquba and Muqdadiya, where we have seen, from time to time, operations by women suicide bombers who have come to Diyala Governorate. To date, 16 suicide women bombers have blown themselves up, leaving behind them a number of martyrs and injured people. There have also been some car bombs and roadside bombs. But their presence here as a base seeking to establish an Islamic state in Diyala has been eliminated. The army and the police in Diyala have obtained substantial evidence of this.
[Regarding attacks on the so-called Awakening movements in Diyala Governorate,] there has been a reduction in the number of kidnappings, particularly within the former hot spots of cities such as Ba’aquba and Muqdadiya. The calm that has spread within the cities would not have been possible without the help of the Awakening councils. The official security forces shared 50 percent of the success with the Awakening councils and with former Al-Qaeda dissidents. There are still widespread areas between Khalis and Ba’aquba and other parts of the governorate which are still being protected by the People’s Committees.
Correspondent Ala’a Razzaq in Hilla, Babil Governorate:
The situation is clearly tending toward stability, especially during the past two months, and this has been widely reflected on the streets of Hilla. During the past days and weeks there has been no record of any terrorist crimes, prompting some officials to point out that the terrorist crime rate has fallen steeply. There have been some crimes aimed at the wealthy and members of the medical profession, and officials are indicating that at least ten gangs responsible for such crimes have been neutralized.
Stability has been apparent in daily life on the streets of Hilla, particularly since the security agencies have relaxed the night-time curfew, and we now see vehicles on the streets through the late night hours. People are also showing their sense of security by stepping out to do their shopping, as evidenced particularly on certain streets within the governorate, where the music shops and the shops housing the bands that play at weddings are operating openly and using loudspeakers to advertise themselves. Celebrations after the national football team’s wins have recently filled the streets with thousands of celebrating fans, something which was not seen prior to the implementation of the governorate's security plan. [Previously] when the Iraqi team won the Asian Nations Cup, and when young people took to the streets to celebrate, many of them were beaten by members of some of the extremist factions. There has also been an increase in the number of security personnel on the streets who have been provided with large numbers of specialized security vehicles. The security situation thus appears to be stable.
[Regarding the notoriously dangerous Baghdad-Hilla highway:] In the past, we have recorded a large number of incidents on this stretch of highway, which has been dealt with in an organized way. Citizens took over the positions that were considered terrorist hideouts, and a number of operations were carried out to root out the bases that housed the armed gangs. Fixed and mobile patrols were also used to secure the area completely. The area is now witnessing a reconstruction effort as a result of the governorate's decision to allocate one-third of its budget to the former "Death Triangle" [in Babil Governorate.]
